Bitcoin Low Volatility May Lead to 30% Price Fluctuations

Sean Farrell, Head of Digital Asset Strategy at Fundstrat, points out that Bitcoin's 30-day volatility has recently fallen to historical lows. In the past eight instances of similar situations, the median absolute price change over the following 60 days was 30.2% (4 up, 4 down). At its current price of approximately $64,000, a 30% increase could reach $83,200, while a 30% decrease could reach $44,800. Farrell states that the recent rise is primarily driven by short covering rather than new buying, with futures open interest declining by about 8%. Meanwhile, the continued rise in real bond yields could be a key factor breaking the current low volatility pattern. Bitcoin has already fallen nearly 27% in 2026, and its short-term direction remains uncertain.