September 24th – CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost points out that the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder (STH) cost base has confirmed crossing above the Active Long-Term Holder (LTH) cost base. This indicator shows a shift in market momentum, thus confirming a Bitcoin bull market. This is the 5th time this signal has appeared in history, but the analyst also emphasizes that this indicator still has the potential for misjudgment.
Key Indicator Analysis and Data:
"Active LTH" Definition: Refers to long-term held supply that has moved at least once in the past 7 years, excluding long-dormant or non-circulating BTC.
Dormant Data: Currently, over 3.5 million BTC held for more than 10 years remain dormant, with this supply increasing by an average of approximately 8,000 to 30,000 BTC per month.
Historical Anomalies: Since 2019, this indicator has only shown negative growth once, due to early miners reactivating and transferring approximately 100,000 BTC, a relatively isolated event.
Market Drivers: Darkfost believes that the current signal reflects positive changes in the Bitcoin market, with ETF liquidity inflows being one of the driving factors.
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