Bitcoin's High-Risk March: $120,000 Expectations Contrast with the $60,000-$70,000 Accumulation Phase

Entering March, the Bitcoin market stands at a critical crossroads. Last week, Bitcoin briefly dipped to a low of $62,900 before rebounding and currently standing above $66,000. Market sentiment is complex, with the risk of further pullbacks on one hand, and institutions and analysts bullish on $120,000 on the other.

Despite a 22% year-over-year decline and a currently heavy price action, macro analysts are watching a dramatic repricing event that could drive a vertical price surge by the end of the month.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows: Can They Really Support the $120,000 Target?

Despite price volatility, institutional confidence in Bitcoin's long-term prospects remains unshaken. Macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg reiterated his bullish outlook on Bitcoin, predicting its price will double within weeks. On March 1st, he noted a “prime scenario” where Bitcoin could reach $110,000 to $120,000, representing an approximately 80% upside from its current level of around $66,000.

Zeberg attributes this expectation to a return to “risk-averse sentiment” in the market and continued strong ETF inflows. He even believes there is a 25% probability that the price could overshoot to $140,000 to $150,000.

This view aligns with the assessment of Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani's team. They believe the current market is in its “weakest bear market” phase in history due to the adoption of cryptocurrencies by the banking sector and potential support for cryptocurrency policies from the Trump administration.

Institutional infrastructure is also following suit. For example, Morgan Stanley has applied for a national trust license to hold crypto assets for its clients, indicating that large financial institutions are preparing for a long-term strategy, which could further reduce the circulating supply of Bitcoin in the market.

If ETF inflows can maintain their current pace, supply could soon become tight, pushing prices to challenge the $120,000 target sooner.

Short Squeeze After Hitting $62,900: Why March is So Crucial

However, the path to the highs is destined to be bumpy. Early last week (February 24th), Bitcoin briefly fell to $62,920, breaking below the uptrend line, surprising some short sellers who expected prices to fall to $50,000.

But then the market quickly staged a classic "short squeeze." When prices rebounded to $65,000, a large number of short positions were forced to close, pushing Bitcoin back up to $69,000 the following day.

This rebound once again demonstrates the resilience of the Bitcoin market: even with a sudden $5,000 drop in a single day, the market can still quickly stabilize and rebound.

From a technical perspective, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen from the overbought zone to the neutral zone of 41, indicating that as long as buying pressure returns, the market still has ample room to rise.

Can Bitcoin truly break through $120,000?

Currently, CoinMarketCap's Fear & Greed Index has entered the "Extreme Fear" zone (15/100). Historically, this is often a contrarian signal, indicating the formation of a local bottom.

Market divergence is evident: investors with weak hands are selling on dips, while those with a longer-term perspective see the $60,000 area as an opportunity to buy in batches. Historical patterns also show that price adjustments after halving events often end in this slow, consolidating bottoming process before entering a new upward cycle.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading within a key range. The immediate resistance level is at $72,000. A successful break above this level could signal the end of the correction phase, potentially leading to a move towards Zeberg's target of $110,000.

Risks remain: If the key support level of $60,000 is breached, the market structure could weaken. While extreme views regarding a potential sharp drop in Bitcoin persist, these opinions are increasingly detached from current fundamental realities.

In summary, favorable macroeconomic policies (such as the progress of the Clarity Act), continuous inflows into ETFs, and a decline in market leverage levels—these politically favorable factors have collectively laid the foundation for price increases.

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