According to reports, during the two bear market bottoms in February 2019 and January 2022, the number of BTC in loss was 10.6 million each time. If this pattern continues in the current bear market, the corresponding bottom price is about 60,000 US dollars. Whenever the amount of BTC in circulation that is in loss reaches a certain critical value, supply may dry up, making it difficult for prices to fall further. On February 5, 2026, when BTC fell to 60,000 dollars, the loss amount was close to 9.93 million. If it returns to 60,000 again, the loss amount of the current BTC chip structure would reach 10.6 million, which may coincide with the previous bear market bottoms.